Friday, October 10, 2008

And the word of the day is "Capitulation"

The fear game is over. Bulls are fighting back by inflating Apple and GE, this dares others to invest and it's changing the game. The market is about to make a frenzy comeback. Then flatten out and go down.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Watch BDK

If you're into watching where the economy is going...watch Black & Decker. They are an early cyclical stock. They will be the first respond to any kind of swing in the economy (up or down). Don't look for it to move in the near future as this recovery will be "U" shaped as opposed to a "V". That said, I believe there will be a some positive days in the week comes as the market gets over the immense fear they have.

If you're looking for good news (and there isn't much), there was improvements in the commercial paper market today as investors are slightly more confident to loan.

Waisting 10 Minutes

First off, I’m incredibly arrogant to even consider writing this blog and to think that anyone would want to read it. So why? I’ve done pretty well with stocks over the years and maybe someone might want to listen to my nonsense rants about what I’m doing in this market.

So, here are my thoughts....

This market has left the “Fundamentals Train Station” and has entered “Fearsville”. ; There is no sense that some positions have lost 50%. Does anyone actually think that Walmart will have a 30% same store sales decrease? No, given the state of the economy, they will likely increase sales. People will be moving from target to walmart to save a little money this xmas. Even an inherently overvalued P/E world, there WILL be a return to Fundamentals.

Another position I like a lot is pharmaceuticals. Specifically, I like PJP. It’s an ETF (kind of like a mutual fund without the costs) that tracks pharma’s. It’s down 20% from an already undervalued price. People still need to buy their drugs.

The last asset to look into is McDonalds (MCD). I believe that people will be going to McDonalds instead of Chili’s.

I have purchased all of the above today. Financials have been hit the hardest, but they are giving away so much leverage that I’m on the sidelines to see how they will actually make money.

I probably just wasted 10 min of my time, but oh well.